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2023年3月14日 星期二

選股情報 - 石鏡泉 2023年3月14日

選股情報 - 石鏡泉 2023年3月14日


《缸邊隨筆-石鏡泉》救得了嗎?
《缸邊隨筆-石鏡泉》救得了嗎?
  《缸邊隨筆》SIVB出事了,美國政府全力救援,但救得了嗎?先看美政府怎救。

 
  美儲局周日(12日)出了如下聲明:
 
  To support American businesses and 

household

s, the Federal Reserve Board on 

Sunday announced it will make available 

additional funding to eligible depository 

institutions to help assure banks have the

 ability to meet the needs of all their 

depositors﹒ This action will bolster the 

capacity of the banking system to 

safeguard deposits and ensure the ongoing 

provision of money and credit to the 

economy﹒
 
  譯過來就是,會提供足夠資金,給所有合格銀行去支付存款者的提取,以保障經濟和信貸市

場運作。
 
  錢從何來?是透過個BTFP來。
 
  The financing will be made available 

through the creation of a new Bank Term 

Funding Program(BTFP), offering loans of 

up to one year in length to banks, savings

 associations, credit unions, and other 

eligible depository institutions pledging 

U﹒S﹒ Treasuries, agency debt and mortgage-

backed securities, and other qualifying 

assets as collateral﹒ These assets will be

 valued at par﹒ The BTFP will be an 

additional source of liquidity against 

high-quality securities, eliminating an 

institution’s need to quickly sell those 

securities in times of stress﹒

 
  譯過來是:成立個Bank Term Funding Program(BTFP),

向合資格的、有需要的存貸機構,提供一年期的抵押資金,以免這些存貸機構,在市場急求售資

產,而引起金融市場波動。
 
  這個想法是很好的,這個BTFP有幾多資金可以去頂這個需急救錢局!

 
  美儲局謂,美財政部會自Exchange Stabilization Fund撥出

250億美元予BTFP,但市場估這個急救錢是需資2兆美元!!!250億去頂2兆美元局

?怕大衞高栢飛也搞不定!
 
  喔!會不會這250億只是先頭撥款,繼後有大資金押注?聽好了,以下是美儲局、美財政

部和Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

(FDIC)出的聯合聲明:
 
  After receiving a recommendation from 

the boards of the FDIC and the Federal 

Reserve, and consulting with the President

, Secretary Yellen approved actions 

enabling the FDIC to complete its 

resolution of Silicon Valley Bank, Santa 

Clara, California, in a manner that fully 

protects all depositors﹒ Depositors will 

have access to all of their money starting

 Monday, March 13﹒ No losses associated 

with the resolution of Silicon Valley Bank

 will be borne by the taxpayer﹒

 
  We are also announcing a similar 

systemic risk exception for Signature Bank

, New York, New York, which was closed 

today by its state chartering authority﹒ 

All depositors of this institution will be

 made whole﹒ As with the resolution of 

Silicon Valley Bank, no losses will be 

borne by the taxpayer﹒

 
  譯過來就是,會救,但不會用納稅人的錢來救,即是就是這麼多,或是要多怕也多不了多少

,不會傾全國之力去救。於是:存款戶的錢應是安全的,但債主、股東,都不被納入被救之列。

 
  如這250億能起到四両撥千斤,起到定海神針作用,真是天佑美國,但如穩不了呢?美國

有18兆美元的存款額。
 
  SIVB未出事前是美國第18大銀行,截至去年底,SIVB的存戶有1700億存在

SIVB!這兩周SIVB的存款已被提走了不少,SIVB的現金存量已達負數。但現金存量

到負數,並不代表所有存戶已提取了所有的錢,一如有人欠債(存戶)百萬,但袋已清零,此人

仍有一百萬元的欠債。
 
  SIVB雖然爆煲,但一些大銀行對收購SIVB表示出興趣,有白武士來救,好事。但在

2008年3月也有Bear Stearns等機構陷財困,而由美國的大金融機構合併了。

但到8月,仍免不了有雷曼倒閉,因為這些機構要倒,是泡沫所然,是個趨勢。

 
  滙豐(00005) 就先行軍,用一英鎊收購了SIVB的英國業務,咁平,必然是要孭

埋SIVB英國的債。現時看銀行業的資產,不是看你存款有多少(因隨時可以被提出),而是

要看貸出去的債能否被收回來。估計SIVB英國的貸出債有55億英鎊,這些債能否被回收,

全取決於債仔(多是科技創投)在未來的科研成效,產品可否成金及未來的信貸情況如何(加息

?減息?),我看不通。
 
*美加息周期已死*
 
  上文提及的美儲局、美財政部和FDIC的聲明是如此結語:

 
  The U﹒S﹒ banking system remains 

resilient and on a solid foundation, in 

large part due to reforms that were made 

after the financial crisis that ensured 

better safeguards for the banking 

industry﹒ Those reforms combined with 

today's actions demonstrate our commitment

 to take the necessary steps to ensure 

that depositors' savings remain safe﹒

 
  譯過來是:
 
  我們自上次金融危機(雷曼爆破)之後已做了不少改進,以保證存戶的存款安全,今次亦如

是,存戶的錢是安全的。
 
  市場怎解讀?
 
  Translation:the Fed's hiking cycle is 

dead and buried, and here comes the next 

round of massive liquidity injections﹒ It 

also means that the Fed, Treasury and FDIC

 have just experienced the most 

devastating humiliation in recent history 

- just 4 days ago Powell was telling 

Congress he could hike 50bps and here we 

are now using taxpayer funds to bail out 

banks that have collapsed because they 

couldn't even handle 4﹒75% and somehow the

 Fed has no idea!
 
  美儲局加息周期已死!!!
 
  4日前鮑威爾尚向國會聽證會講,可以加息至5厘上。但今時在4﹒75%的聯邦基金利率

水平,SIVB及其他類似銀行,已頂唔順,破產了,美儲局尚要加息?

 
  所以美息的加息預期立跌。
 
  在上周五(10日),市場已賭到今年底,美儲局要減息25點子,在昨文亦已提出了。

 
  所以筆者一直認為鮑威爾是插上鷹毛的鴿,因為形勢比人強!《資深投資者 石鏡泉》

 
(投資涉風險,每投資者承受風險程度不一,務必要獨立思考。筆者會因應市況而買賣。)

 
*《經濟通》所刊的署名及╱或不署名文章,相關內容屬作者個人意見,並不代表《經濟通》立

場,《經濟通》所扮演的角色是提供一個自由言論平台。

各大銀行實時「定存息率大比拼」► 即睇
選股情報 - 石鏡泉 舊文
本文作轉載及備份之用 來源 source: http://www.etnet.com.hk