恆生指數
國企指數
恒 指波幅指數近20日

VIX指數 近5日

上証綜指
深圳成指
滬深300

文章漏咗/建議:按此通知

2015年2月6日 星期五

點石成金 - 石鏡泉 2015年2月6日

點石成金 - 石鏡泉 2015年2月6日


希臘締造新神話?


希臘是個神話之國,幾千年前的神話,其中包括不少做人、做事道理,亦成為西方文明基石。但2015年希臘也出了個新神話,叫做「賴債」,這或許會是摧毀西方文明的第一擊。

甚麼是文明?戰爭、殺戮、欺詐,是人類歷史一部分,但我們不會以此教下一代。仁愛、誠信、寬恕,雖看似戇居,但人類如不如此,何以繁衍?文明何以延續?

法治是社會重要基石
我亦認為,法治,是維持社會穩定的重要基石,如果你存款的銀行有日通知你,你的存款會由有息變冇息,違反了之前的存款合約條文,你以後還會到該銀行存款嗎?又如果,你跟銀行講,你借銀行的樓宇按揭,不再供款了,亦不再付息,但你仍承認,你是欠銀行的,只不過是有拖冇欠而矣!你是銀行,會接受嗎?

今時希臘的新政府就是這樣,其新財長Yanis Varoufakis說,以下是大意,原文請看另欄,要出原文,以免有屈人之嫌:

⑴我們的選民選我們出來的原因,就是他們不認同前政府簽下來的外債保款,因此我們要將這此外債條款,重新審議:“This platform enabled us to win the confidence of the Greek people,”Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis told reporters after their meeting.“Our first action as a government will not be to reject the rationale of questioning this program through a request to extend it.”

⑵我們不是要求債務寬減,而是只求要債務重組,欠歐洲諸國的債,改為按希臘日後經濟增長率來還和付息的債,欠歐央行的債改為有拖冇欠債,息率是零:Mr Varoufakis told the Financial Times the government would no longer call for a headline write-off of Greece"s 315 bn foreign debt. Rather it would request a“menu of debt swaps”to ease the burden, including two types of new bonds.

The first type, indexed to nominal economic growth, would replace European rescue loans, and the second, which he termed“perpetual bonds”, would replace European Central Bank-owned Greek bonds.

He said his proposal for a debt swap would be a form of“smart debt engineering”that would avoid the need to use a term such as a debt“haircut”, politically unacceptable in Germany and other creditor countries because it sounds to taxpayers like an outright loss.

此中代表甚麼?不要追債,我賺到幾多就還幾多,付到幾多息就幾多息,所謂賺到幾多,就是看以後希臘的經濟增長,Varoufakis沒有講,如果希臘經濟一直沒有增長,那要不要還債?你搵唔到錢就可以唔供樓,夠人情味,但金融世界不是這樣玩嘛!至於借錢是有拖有欠,兼全不付息,你估歐央行係你老竇咩!養仔女就真係等仔女大後有本心就還(供養父母),兼不用付息,但金融世界可以嗎?

⑶畀條路我哋行啦!唔係就一齊死喇:“What I"ll say to our partners is that we are putting together a combination of a primary budget surplus and a reform agenda,”Mr Varoufakis, a leftwing academic economist and prolific blogger, said.“I"ll say, "Help us to reform our country and give us some fiscal space to do this, otherwise we shall continue to suffocate and become a deformed rather than a reformed Greece".”

⑷以前政府簽落的債務條款太苛刻了,我哋新政府要推倒從來,因為我們的選民要求我這樣做,做不到,就有違民主了:“Whatever our partners think about our being from the radical left, we"re serious about reform, serious about being good Europeans and serious about listening. The only thing we shall not retreat from is our view that the current unenforceable programme [agreed with our creditors] needs to be rethought from scratch,”he said.

“Our mandate gives us a right to do one little thing - to have a few short weeks to propose our own ideas to the ECB, the eurozone partners and the IMF,”the minister said.“The notion that previous Greek governments signed on the dotted line on programmes that haven"t worked, and that we should be obliged to just follow that line unswervingly, is a challenge to democracy.”

有約不守 何來文明
情形就是,我今時結婚了,有了個新家庭,我老婆話你銀行供樓條款太辣,要我推倒從來,我不依我老婆,就是有違我老婆大人(人民)之命,不民主啦!

如果希臘這些要求都達到,你認為希臘是否締造了2015年的新神話,但如這些神話成真,各位認為:人無信不立,西方引以為傲的合約法,是否會蕩然無存?有信,有約而不守,是否要回歸牙齒當金使的,信就信,不信就罷就的年代,人人在第二日都謂:推倒從來,請問西方文明將何以再存?何以傳?

不過,可以肯定的是,自2015年以後,這種輸打贏要的「文明」,將會普及,閣下應如何之處?只能講聲,你自己諗嘞!

點石成金 - 石鏡泉 舊文